TUBITAK 3501 public project hub

Starspot timing systematics in active exoplanet host stars.

Public project information for "Comprehensive Characterization and Correction of Starspot-Induced Systematic Effects on Exoplanet Transit Mid-Time Measurements", a 30-month research plan led by Dr. Arif Solmaz at Istanbul Health and Technology University.

Project purpose

A decision framework for active-star transit timing.

The problem

Starspots can distort transit light curves and shift apparent transit mid-times. Those shifts can mimic or mask the small timing signals used in TTV, orbital-decay, apsidal-precession, and ephemeris-update studies.

The method

The project combines physical transit-plus-spot modelling, systematic simulation, machine-learning triage, Bayesian correction, and real-data validation across active planet-host systems.

The output

The goal is not automatic correction at any cost. The project will identify when correction is justified, when uncertainty inflation is safer, and when a transit should be excluded from timing work.

Motivating signals

Preliminary timing scatter is large enough to matter.

63 s HAT-P-11b timing scatter scale
80 s WASP-19b timing scatter scale
145 s HAT-P-36b hard validation case
22 s WASP-52b timing scatter scale
193 Homogeneous transit-timing sample used in current project material
5 Independent timing-analysis lines compared

Project visuals

Selected figures from the current project material.

Examples of HAT-P-11b starspot crossing events
HAT-P-11b spot-crossing examples
HAT-P-11b transit-timing diagram
Transit-timing scatter in HAT-P-11b
Synthetic machine-learning validation metrics
Synthetic spot-detection metrics
GJ 1214b JWST MIRI white-light curve
JWST white-light curve example
Simulation and observation validation comparison
Simulation-observation validation
Additional validation target material
Additional active-star validation targets